A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
